Google China: The Big Picture

The censorship showdown highlights Google's longer-term strategy.

As the situation for Google in China continues to balance precariously between disaster and oblivion, it would be easy to characterize the company's get-tough stance in the censorship fight with the Chinese government as near-suicidal.

It would also be patently wrong. Google isn't planning on leaving the world's largest potential growth market anytime soon, and its move to stop the censorship of results on the Google.cn domain – the political equivalent of lighting a fire under an almighty king's throne – is no more than an opening gambit in what promises to be a very long, twisted game of brinkmanship between an admittedly odd set of players.

It's not often that a company goes up against a foreign government; typically, this kind of thing happens exclusively between nations, and the barbs are delivered, politely, through ambassadors, heads of state, and other official, time-honoured channels.

But Google isn't just any company, and China's leadership isn't just any government.

For its part, Google sees itself as a global force for leveraging information and technology to improve the way we – and others – live. This runs counter to the Chinese government's ideologically driven goal of exerting control over a population during an age in which fast-growing internet access makes such control difficult to conceptualize, let alone implement. If the internet is the Chinese government's worst nightmare, then Google – the corporate equivalent of the key that unlocks the internet's potential – represents that nightmare come to life.

It was only a matter of time before these two opposing forces collided. The only questions were when it would happen and how ugly it would get. Our answers are simple: now and very. But it's almost too easy to categorize Google's plan to force the government's hand as an ill-conceived shot across an overwhelmingly powerful enemy's bow. To wit:

• The two sides have more commonalities than differences. Google wants to build a business in China just as intensely as the Chinese government wants to continue to build the country into a global economic superpower. Their key differences – Google's open-information, do-no-evil mantra vs. the government's Big Brother-inspired strategy – reflect two different routes to a strikingly similar goal. Ultimately, they need each other.

• Hong Kong provides leverage for Google. The Chinese government promised a hands-off policy before it took over the former British territory in 1997. By redirecting requests to the uncensored, Hong Kong-based Google.com.hk domain, Google puts the Chinese government in the position of violating its historic commitment.

• Google knows this will be painful. Google will most certainly lose this one in the near term. The Chinese government is already censoring results returned to the mainland via Google.com.hk. Officials there have condemned Google's actions using the strongest possible language – a response that will undoubtedly chill advertisers and partners and prompt them to back away from Google, at least for now. Despite Google's claims that it intends to continue doing business in China, things within the mainland are about to get lonely – and unprofitable – for the search giant. It's a reality the company expected and is prepared to endure.

• This is a war, not a battle. No one is saying the communist regime will crumble Soviet Bloc-style anytime soon. But at some point in the far future, the government will need to adjust information-related freedoms to a level where they support and sustain China's emergence on the world stage. The evolution will always be slower than activists want – simply because change on this scale would be dangerous if not carefully metered – but it will happen. By not bowing to the pressure at this early stage, Google positions itself to be the provider of choice when the landscape finally opens up. American search firms that allowed censorship with nary a peep likely won't fare as well.

In many respects, Google's move to shake up the status quo represents a break from the acquiescent strategy most American tech firms have followed in China to date. They censored search results at the Chinese government's request – rather, orders – because they felt being in a compromised position in China was better than being on the outside looking in. With even a basic presence there, the thinking was that they'd be able to influence change over time.

In deciding to break from this uncomfortable yet cozy state of being, Google is forcing the issue with a power that not even its vaunted technology can vanquish. Communism is alive and well in China and will be for some time to come. Google's end game foresees what comes after that, and it has the deep pockets and the patience to wait it out.