With Canadian federal politics still a logjam, the political parties have much to consider over their summer break.
On Friday, the third session of the 40th Parliament came to a close. According to the Parliament of Canada website, a total of 45 bills were introduced during that session, of which two – yes two – received royal assent. This is, of course, aside from the countless hours of posturing during committee hearings, the countless invectives uttered during question period, and the myriad of members’ queries that were left unanswered. While it is always difficult to evaluate what is being accomplished in the House of Commons, the verdict from the voting public is easier to ascertain.
When the session began on March 3, 2010, an EKOS tracking poll indicated that about a third (32 per cent) of Canadians supported the Conservatives, ahead of the Liberals at 30 per cent. The NDP garnered 16 per cent of support, followed by the Green party (11 per cent) and the Bloc (9 per cent, or 37 per cent in Quebec). By June 15, little had changed. Support for the Conservatives was down to 31 per cent while support for the Liberals had dropped to 26 per cent. The Bloc (now 11 per cent), the NDP (now 17 per cent) and the Green party (now 12 per cent) saw their vote share increase slightly.
In short, if an election had been held in the spring, the electorate would have denied Stephen Harper his long sought-after majority and another dysfunctional Parliament would have been elected to replace the one we currently have. The main federal parties can now look ahead to the summer recess to find ways to break the logjam.
For its part, the Bloc can look forward to a quiet summer. Despite the perennial discussion of its imminent demise, the Bloc remains solidly entrenched in Parliament and Quebecers continue to support it. The Conservatives irremediably tarnished their image in that province when they questioned the legitimacy of the participation of the Bloc in the proposed Liberal-NDP coalition that led to prorogation. The vehemence of the Harper government attacks against the “séparatistes” destroyed any remote chance the Conservatives had to increase their vote share in Quebec. Jean Charest and his scandal-plagued Liberal government has further contributed to tarnishing the two main parties and gave new life to the independence movement. Gilles Duceppe can quietly enjoy this week’s St-Jean-Baptiste festivities and rest until the next session of Parliament.
Things could not be more different for the Liberals. Their latest ad campaign is simply the most recent sign of a party that has completely lost its way. The Liberals are spending money they do not have on an ad campaign that will have no lasting impact on the upcoming vote. It is a desperate attempt to hide the fact that Ignatieff and his team have little idea on how to revive their electoral fortunes. When the old guard muses about the return of Jean Chrétien what they are pining for is what he and his team brought to the table: a thorough understanding of the public based on in-depth polling, a clear issue-based strategy to tap into public sentiment, and a flawless execution of that strategy. Those are the lessons from the Liberals’ glorious past that should preoccupy Michael Ignatieff this summer. Another lesson should be to ignore the pundits. The pundits who are predicting his demise are the same who once argued that Jean Chrétien would be no match for the Kim Campbell juggernaut.
The NDP came close to being able to enjoy a constructive summer. The idea of a Liberal-NDP coalition, while presented as a desperate move by the Liberals, remains the only chance the New Democrats will ever have to be a governing force in Ottawa. Despite their adversaries’ lackluster performance, the fact is that the NDP is not competing with the Liberals for second spot in voting intentions but with the Green party for electoral irrelevance. Now that the idea of a coalition is dead, the NDP can spend the summer imagining new ways to claim moral victory the next time they face the Canadian electorate.
Maneuvering through the traffic in Toronto during the G20 Summit will be one of the difficult tasks facing Stephen Harper this summer. No Conservative leader has been blessed with such weak opposition since John A. Macdonald faced Alexander Mackenzie and then Edward Blake. And yet, support for the Conservatives has dropped since the 2008 election. Stephen Harper may be on the way to becoming the Conservatives’ Lester B. Pearson – the one who could of, should of, but never did. Canadian voters will quickly forget about fake lakes and Muskoka chairs when Prime Minister Harper makes Canada proud on the international stage at the end of the month. He can then spend the summer resisting the temptation to turn accolades into a licence to engage in partisan games as he is prone to do. Instead, he should focus on the three pillars of a successful election strategy in this country: presenting a realistic plan to deal with the economy, articulating his vision of Canada, and laying out how he will preserve the social safety net. Do that, and the Conservatives could be looking beyond the next parliamentary session at a majority government before the summer of 2011.
