Three Reasons For a Fall Election

While the Harper government seems reluctant to call an election, there is good reason to suspect we'll be casting ballots sooner rather than later.

The ideological idiocy of the Harper-led minority this summer on the census, crime, and climate has highlighted the atrocious state of Canadian governance. Even conservative, bow tie wearing columnists have gotten into the act.

Recently, a former Harper pol may have tipped his hand by suggesting a fall election was unlikely. While the Conservatives appear scared to death of asking the public where they stand, here are three reasons why I think we are likely to see a fall election in Canada.

1. Trade and Politics

The election of Barack Obama in the U.S. could impact our own electoral future. Over the last 20 years, Canada has generally followed in the political footsteps of our neighbour to the south. The re-election of Ronald Reagan in 1984 was followed by the election of Brian Mulroney the same year. Since the 1988 Free Trade Act and the passage of NAFTA in 1994, our two economies have become even more intertwined. Within a year of Clinton’s election, we had the rise of Jean Chrétien. Within a year of George W. Bush’s re-election, Harper secured his first minority.

Of course, as any student of stats will understand (Tony Clement need not apply), this sort of limited analysis should be taken with a grain or more of salt. After all, it has been more than a year since Obama made history. Yet, this may be the exception that proves the rule. It is hard to see how the interest in evidence-based policy in the Obama administration can be connected with the audacity of ideology crowd currently in power in Canada.

2. Polling and Progressives

If recent polling trends are to be believed, this may be Ignatieff’s last chance. Since being anointed, he has squandered too many other opportunities to not take advantage of current developments. While the see-saw polling of the last year makes relying solely on public opinion dangerous, there is a clear narrative emerging which the Opposition can build upon. In short, Harper has never been more vulnerable.

Do Canadians favour evidence or ideology? Are they more hopeful or fearful? Is the future green and clean, or black and sooty? The assault on Canada’s institutions, both formal and informal, have led to so many mini revolts, satires, and even resignations, it appears as though the stars are aligning for Canadian progressives. The question (as always) is, can they work together to provide a sensible alternative? Look for some bombshell leaks from our much-maligned friends in the public service, and shunned Tories.

3. Coalitions and Canada

While Ignatieff may have a chance this fall to reposition the Liberals, Canada is too politically fractured to produce a stable majority of any kind. As much as the old dinosaurs who control Canadian politics and the media are loathe to admit it, Canada is growing and changing. Our existing first-past-the-post electoral system makes no sense and is hurting, not helping peace, order, and good government. There has been some great stuff published recently on the failure of existing voting systems to represent the electorate. Without some serious reflection about how Canadians govern themselves, we will continue to be stuck with perpetual and unpopular minority governments. The coalition in Britain could be used as a model in Canada, and the sort of intelligent and difficult decisions being taken in the motherland counter the fear mongering that often passes for commentary these days.

Coalitions can be recipes for action and not paralysis when they provide a means for representative constituencies to cooperate. Moreover, the promise of allowing people to speak up for a better alternative, and a more representative voting system may spark those on the ground to engage in a national conversation about the state of our politics. Groundswells can work. Just ask Gordon Campbell about the HST.

Whether it is a formal coalition, an accord, or an agreement, all good politics are based on cooperation and consensus. Harper has proven he can do neither. Any future election must be seen as a referendum on Harper and his minority government. The failure to win a majority must be seen as Harper’s failure to bring Conservative ideas into the mainstream of Canadian society. Whatever the conventional wisdom among the political punditry in Ottawa, pundits are supposed to report, not decide. It is time to ask the people if they are ready for an alternative approach to Canadian governance.