The Liberals and Quebec: It's Complicated

The party's relationship with the voters of La Belle Province has had its ups and down.

The Liberal love affair with Quebec has been a tumultuous one over the years. In 1980, Quebecers gave Pierre Trudeau 74 out of 75 seats. Four years later, Brian Mulroney would paint the province blue, winning 67 seats. Since Mulroney, the Bloc Québécois has been the political powerhouse, leaving the other parties to fight over the federalist scraps.

In recent years, this Liberal-Quebec relationship has been what Katy Perry would describe as “hot and cold.” There was the shocking 2007 byelection loss in Outremont, which cast doubts on Dion’s leadership. In early 2009, the Ignatieff-led Liberals soared ahead of the Bloc in the polls, but later that year, the poutine hit the fan when the long-time rivalry between Denis Coderre and Martin Cauchon came to a head over who would get the Outremont nomination.

Earlier this month, the Conservatives blasted Ignatieff as being out of touch with Quebec when Jean-Marc Fournier left the Opposition Leader’s Office (OLO) to be Quebec’s Minister of Justice. They painted political staff leaving the leader’s office as a sign the ship was sinking – no doubt the story was leaked to the media by Stephen Harper’s 5th communications director in 4 years.

Last week came the very sad news that Ignatieff’s Communications Director, Mario Laguë, had died in a motorcycle crash. This tragedy was a shock to the OLO, and many are now wondering how the loss of Fournier and Laguë will impact the always volatile Liberal fortunes in Quebec.

In my opinion, despite these setbacks, things are looking up – partly because of the strategies and frameworks put in place by Fournier and Laguë over the past year.

On the ground, the Quebec wing of the Liberal party is flourishing under former cabinet minister Lucienne Robillard’s leadership. Well, “flourishing” may be pushing it, but at the very least we haven’t seen any Journal De Montreal stories describing open warfare between internal party factions – by PLCQ standards, that’s a small miracle.

Ignatieff himself is doing what needs to be done – meeting Quebecers. He has visited 11 Quebec cities on the Liberal Express since Harper last showed his face in La Belle Province. Sure, flipping pancakes in Sainte-Élie-de-Caxton isn’t headline grabbing stuff, but it’s what successful leaders do to build an organization and win. You meet voters, the local paper writes up a nice fluff piece, and you energize local Liberals. It’s the sort of stuff Stephen Harper used to do all the time back when he was opposition leader, and he reaped the rewards in the 2006 election.

The other thing voters notice is what the parties actually stand for. To date, both the Liberals and Conservatives have fallen down in this department, which explains why the Bloc Québécois tops the opinion polls, even as the party once described as a “temporary ad hoc rainbow coalition” celebrates 20 years of futility.

The Liberals have fallen down because Ignatieff has yet to enunciate a clear vision for the country. That’s fixable.

Harper’s problems in Quebec run deeper. Simply put, the Conservatives are ideologically offside from the province. Historically, this has been a problem for Harper – we saw it with Iraq, same sex marriage, and, in the last election, culture funding. It will continue to be a problem for him moving forward. One week, gun control pops up as an issue; the next, it’s the environment. Balancing the interests of western conservatives and Quebecers is like juggling on a tightrope over Niagara Falls – Brian Mulroney tried it, and the resulting splash led to the creation of the aforementioned temporary ad hoc rainbow coalition.

I wouldn’t necessarily diagnose Quebec with a case of Iggy-mania. But, at the very least, the Liberals are well positioned to rekindle the old coup de foudre.