Can Iggy Find His Centre?

If the Liberals want to form a government, they will need more than a summer road trip. They will need to strike the right balance between being progressive and moderate.

As the Liberal caucus gathers in Baddeck, Cape Breton to assess its fall strategy, Michael Ignatieff ought to take a moment to reflect on his summer’s accomplishments. A dizzying bus tour of Canada has allowed the real Ignatieff to emerge, we are told. He is more articulate, connecting with voters, and appears to have developed a narrative more in line with a prime minister in waiting. In short, the Liberals have their mojo back.

Well, it’s about time. Ignatieff, as a 2006 Globe and Mail profile by Michael Valpy will attest to, entered Canadian politics riding a wave of high expectations. But as the New Yorker’s Adam Gopnik has noted, his transition from academia to politics has been a difficult one.

So where should he go from here?

I have argued before that while a fall election is far from certain, it might be justified given the numerous missteps of the minority Harper government, and the sense among many that the long glorious history and tradition of the Tory party in Canada has been replaced by a nasty, “know nothing strain of conservatism.”

While the Liberals are rightfully cautious, given the failure of their tough talk last fall, they risk losing their momentum when the House returns in September. If an election is to be called this fall, the caucus needs to find middle ground between two competing strategies.

The first is to simply embrace the possibility of a centre-left coalition. For Canadians with even a moderate level of parliamentary literacy, the denial that a coalition in Canada is even a possibility seems disingenuous. To them, all politics is about coalitions in one way or another. As has been noted by Preston Manning, it is time to get serious about building workable coalitions in Canada.

But while turning one’s back on a government based on a majority in the House of Commons seems like a pretty dumb move for such an accomplished guy, Valpy recently stated Ignatieff’s position unequivocally: there will be no progressive coalition in Canada without the support of Western Canada.

Feel better Alberta?

Perhaps Ignatieff is just hoping his protestations will rule out any coalition talk until after an election. Fat chance. Harper continues to raise it every chance he gets, something that is unlikely to change any time soon. Why would it?

The problem is that by refusing to challenge Harper’s version of parliamentary reality, Ignatieff allows doubts to grow in the minds of Canadians. This is dangerous, unless he truly means to rule out any future coalition under his leadership. Can you say flip-flop?

The other strategy – one that appears far more likely at present – is the attempt to woo dissatisfied moderate voters away from the Conservatives and build something of a centre-rightish mandate for a minority government. Risky to be sure, but Ignatieff is embracing the well-worn sentiment that the Liberals are the natural governing party of Canada. To this end he has tried to turn the never-ending questions about a coalition to his advantage. Consider his remarks in a recent online exchange regarding a Canadian progressive coalition:

We ARE the coalition, at the centre of Canadian politics. We want to draw in Canadian conservatives who wonder where the progressive went in conservatism and appeal to NDP and Green voters who know that if they want action on the environment, they should vote Liberal, because the alternative is four more years of inaction by the Harper government.

This may prove to be good politics, but it smacks of the elitist, pompous, top-down nonsense that Alex Himelfarb suggests is at the heart of the political progressive’s malaise in Canada. Don’t tell me my vote only counts if it is for you, sir. If you refuse to work toward the sort of adult, mature consensus building required to lead a large, diverse country like Canada, do us all a favour and take the visiting professor gig at U of T.

To be sure, Ignatieff is in a tough spot. Ironically, despite his popular press these last few weeks, it will be his decision whether or not to go to the polls this fall that will make or break his political career.

Strategically, the question is can he split the difference like the Liberal party of old? Can he appeal to moderates while leaving room for the active progressive community in Canada to join up? Can his caucus unite behind a message of collaboration in the interest of national unity, while decrying the nastiness of the divide-and-conquer mantra of the last four years? Here is some free advice. When asked in future about a coalition, Ignatieff should simply state:

We are running to win. We hope to secure a clear mandate for a new direction in Canada based on data-driven public policy, green technology, and a more transparent relationship between people and their government. But make no mistake, all good politics requires cooperation, accommodation, and transparency. These have been just some of the Harper government’s failures. We will not repeat them. Whatever the electorate decides on election day, Liberals will work in the House of Commons with whoever is willing to advance a governance program that makes Canada smarter, greener, and fairer. Join us.