New Marching Orders from General Gore

How can we reconcile the self-congratulatory tone of Al Gore's army of environmentalists with the public's reluctance to buy into the reality of climate change?

Polling data from the weeks leading up to May's summit of The Climate Project weren't exactly inspiring. As one of some 2,500 volunteers trained by former U.S. vice president Al Gore to present his "Inconvenient Truth" slide show, it's no help to learn that fewer than half of all Americans accept the science that links human activities to global warming.

Most of the other 600 foot soldiers, including 75 Canadians, who answered the call to assemble in Nashville, Tennessee, needed no validation. Gore's volunteer army has given more than 50,000 slides shows to 75 million people over the past two and half years. We do this because, as Peggy Lehmberg of Jasper, Georgia, puts it, "You can't possibly not do it."

I, however, spent much of the three-day gathering trying to reconcile frustrating polling results with the self-congratulatory tone that filled the sixth floor of the Hutton Hotel. On the one hand, the two pollsters that best predicted the outcome of the 2008 presidential election say the share of Americans who trust climatologists is either stuck at less than 50 per cent (the highly regarded Pew Forum), or has fallen to 34 per cent (the Republican-associated Rasmussen Reports).

A few others shared my doubts. "My own experience is there's still a very solid block of people that think global warming is basically a hoax," said Kristin Riotta, a full-time environmental campaigner in Kansas City, Missouri.

On the other hand, Gore had brought in some of the world's leading authorities to reinforce his message that we are responsible for the fact that, as he spoke, a Congressional committee was working on a bill that would actually cap greenhouse gas emissions.

"It seems incredible that we could change enough minds and put it on the agenda," Gore told us. David Suzuki, Canada's arch-environmentalist, agreed: "It really was An Inconvenient Truth that galvanized everything." And Rajendra Pachauri, the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, called us "missionaries" who "collectively and individually can bring about change."

That goes down well with activists whose T-shirts proclaim that "My carbon footprint is smaller than yours." We signed a contract vowing to give no-admission slide shows in return for nothing more than a lapel pin. We drove and flew from as far as Nigeria and Macedonia to hear our heroes remind us that what we're doing is important.

Most have anecdotal evidence that a tipping point – in public opinion, not climatic equilibrium – has been reached. Vivian Fulk, a wine-grower from North Carolina's Yadkin Valley, said the dismissive reaction to her trade show booths two years ago has transformed into interest. "Now they're all concerned about this."

But that's correlation, not causation. Where's the evidence The Climate Project is actually changing minds? I managed to put that question to our leader in the buffet line. “There are a lot of polls out there that do show progress,” Gore said, seeming a little surprised to be on the defensive by one of his own supporters. I asked if he could be more specific, and he replied without skipping a beat, “Mark Mellman just wrote something, I think.” Then it was someone else’s turn to get their picture taken.

Gore was referring to a column that had recently appeared in The Hill, a Washington, D.C., policy newspaper. Mellman’s survey shows just 16 per cent of Americans deny the reality of global warming. Other polls carried out by the project's sister organization, the Alliance for Climate Protection, and its ally, the National Wildlife Federation, also point to "strong support for global warming action." But another Pew poll puts repairing the climate at the bottom of a list of the top 20 priorities.

Gore might have told me that my fixation with polls misses the point, as changing public opinion is no longer the prime directive of The Climate Project. As if on cue, details of H.R. 2454, the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009, were made public half-way through the summit, to thunderous applause.

Waxman-Markey, as the bill is known, is America’s first serious attempt to reduce the fossil-fuel emissions responsible for climate change. But it’s is a far cry from Barack Obama’s campaign vow to auction off 100 per cent of the emissions that the new scheme will distribute to industry. Just 15 per cent will cost anything; the rest will be given away for the first few years, eliminating much of the incentive to cut what’s pouring from smokestacks and tailpipes.

Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth, among others, denounced the bill as unsupportable. For Gore, though, it represents progress. Because if it passes Congress, the U.S. will be well-poised to take a leadership role at December's Copenhagen conference, widely described as the world's last chance to negotiate a useful climate treaty.

"The U.S. passing legislation and providing a solution is the goal," Gore said. "If we get a bill with the core intact and if congressmen and senators vote for it, you will know that you've done a good job."

"Phase Two" is not a sea change for The Climate Project. Gore did treat us to a new, streamlined, updated and flashier version of the slide show. University of Washington geochemist Eric Steig drove through the night to deliver his talk. It's still OK to include the occasional swipe at Bjorn "Skeptical Environmentalist" Lomborg. But alongside the scientists are a new breed of motivators.

"Now it's time to step it up," declared Steve Hildebrand, Deputy National Campaign Director for Obama's presidential campaign. "If we don't create some serious noise in some critical states, we're not going to win this battle."

Our new mission (except in Canada, where the original mission stands) is to write letters to editors, organize phone banks, do whatever it takes to convince Congress to support Waxman-Markey. That's not what we signed up for, but there was no sign of discomfort as hundreds of newly minted political operatives poured into Nashville's music district on Saturday night to celebrate.

No one was talking about polls.

First published in SEED magazine, May 18, 2009