No Long-Form Census? Hold On To Your Seat.

Trusting our government to run the country without the data from the long-form census is like trusting a pilot to fly a plane with just a map and a compass.

Imagine you’re sitting on a plane in Ottawa, awaiting your departure for Vancouver. The co-pilot announces that the pilot thinks that the plane’s complex computer navigation system provides a lot of information he never uses, and that the lights on the control panel are too distracting. So after consulting with the crew’s navigator, the pilot is going to permanently disable the computer navigation system. Instead, he’ll use a compass, a map, and his understanding of the route to ensure a successful trip.

Then the co-pilot announces that the navigator agrees this approach will be just as good as the plane’s on-board navigation system. But the navigator says the pilot’s plan can’t match the performance of the computer system, and storms off the plane. When frequent flyers in first class object to the pilot’s plan, the co-pilot announces to the passengers in economy class that the opinions of some elitist passengers should not be taken seriously.

What would you do? Would you stay on the plane, trusting that the pilot knows best? Or would you leave with the navigator and demand that the airline provide a pilot who will not compromise your safety?

Canadians currently face a similar situation, but in a further-reaching context. This past June, the Conservative government announced its intention to cancel the mandatory long-form census for 2011. Their justification was that the cancellation would spare Canadians the intrusive questions and coercive nature of the long form.

Instead, the government plans to distribute a similar version of the census long-form as part of a new voluntary National Household Survey. While this change for the 2011 census may not excite the voting public, the September issue of Canadian Public Policy/Analyse de politiques contains four commentaries that highlight the far-reaching implications of this decision for Canadian society. The pieces provide evidence that a voluntary survey cannot be introduced as an effective substitute.

Canadians need to understand that objections to the government’s plan to cancel the long-form census are a matter of evidence, not opinion. Even if the government does proceed with the elimination of the mandatory long form, there remains the need for a thorough process that ensures that the adjustment is a sound policy move that will not harm Canadian society and the quality of Canadian governance.