Election Watch: Day 818

Will we, won't we, will we, won't we, will we join the dance?

A federal election is nigh! At least, according to the National Post’s Gerry Nicholls, who advises Canadians to “watch for Prime Minister Stephen Harper to pull every trick to ensure Canadians do go the polls this spring.” The main reason behind his bold prediction is that Nicholls believes if the economy continues to improve, the Conservatives will no longer be able to capitalize on their reputation as good financial managers. “Instead of economics, Canadians will want government to focus on health care, education and the environment,” he writes. “On these issues Canadian voters are more likely to support the Liberals.” There are two big holes in this theory: one, if the economy continues to improve, the Conservatives could successfully trumpet their economic stewardship through the toughest financial climate in eighty years. Two, the idea that the Liberals would win a vote based on health care or the environment would be a lot more believable if they had shown themselves capable of presenting any ideas on those issues that stuck in Canadians’ heads for a period longer than now until whenever the next episode of Glee starts.

The next budget won’t trigger an election, counters the Montreal Gazette’s L. Ian MacDonald. The Tories need the support of just one opposition party to pass their budget and MacDonald predicts that support is all but assured, considering the NDP is on shaky ground after losing November’s by-elections and doesn’t want an election. “So no election over the budget, thus no spring election,” MacDonald says. “And in the fall, six provinces, including Ontario, have elections” that would interfere with a federal campaign. So no fall election either, which prompts MacDonald to drop the dreaded p-word. “[H]ere's the deal: prorogation at the end of September and a throne speech after Thanksgiving that will serve as the outline of the Conservative platform for an election in the spring of 2012.” Possibly, but if Harper really thinks he can win an election after proroguing Parliament for an unprecedented third time, he must have a massive pair of political cajones. Which, of course, he does.