Why Egypt Could Be the Next Iran

The Middle East's popular uprisings might have a sting in their tails.

Writing in the Globe and Mail, former Canadian ambassador to the Middle East Michael Bell speculates on the prospects for democracy in Egypt, and finds they are not good. Egyptians have taken to the streets for the third straight day demanding the overthrow of president Hosni Mubarak, and while some observers are optimistic that the country will follow in the footsteps of Tunisia, Bell judges its more likely any Egyptian revolution would end up looking like the Iranian revolution in 1979. Iran’s revolution was led by a broad coalition of groups, and only after the Shah was toppled did Islamic fundamentalists have the ability to assert themselves and take power. Similarly, during the current unrest in Egypt the hardline Muslim Brotherhood (easily the most organized opposition force) “has so far taken a back seat,” waiting to fill the power vacuum should the Mubarak regime fall. “Given the absence of viable institutions, save the security services, and an underdeveloped civil society, save the Brotherhood, prospects for democratization seem remote,” writes Bell.

“[T]he American and Western model of dealing with the Arab Middle East is teetering,” writes the Toronto Star’s Haroon Siddiqui, as with stunning speed pro-American regimes in Algeria, Jordan, Yemen, and Egypt have come under siege, and two more in Tunisia and Lebanon have been toppled. “So, it’s not surprising that after having played cheerleaders to the Orange Revolution (Ukraine), the Cedar Revolution (Lebanon) and the Green Revolution (Iran), Washington and other Western capitals have not known how to react to the eruption of people power in Arab lands.” As he has done in past columns, Siddiqui delights in describing the U.S. squirm over the exposure of its hypocrisy, which in the Middle East is particularly stark. But while it’s clear these developments are strategically bad for the West, Siddiqui doesn’t weigh in on what they mean for the citizens of these countries, which would seem to be the bigger issue.