Egypt, One Year from Now

In a year's time, will Egypt have the beginnings of a democracy, or will the revolution have been quashed? Four of our experts try to predict the country's future.

A Transitional Government

Michael Barnett
University Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, George Washington University.

Keeping in mind all the caveats that go along with predicting the future, here’s what I would suggest:

One year from now, Egypt will be several months into a transitional government. This government will comprise former military officials, technocrats such as Mohamed ElBaradei, and members of the opposition. The opposition will include representatives of the Wafd (a nationalist, liberal-democratic party), representatives of the current ruling National Democratic Party, and, importantly, members of the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood.

Egypt will be heading toward UN-supervised elections with the expectation that presidential elections will be quickly followed by parliamentary elections.

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An Authentic and Autonomous Democracy

Jens Hanssen
Assistant Professor of Middle Eastern and Mediterranean History, University of Toronto.

I like to look at moments like these as possibilities. No expert can see into the future, but considering the events of the last few days, there’s legitimate reason to believe that not only will another military general replace Mubarak, but also that some substantial political and constitutional reforms will take place.

That is to say that the entire constitutional system – the definition of the presidency, the definition of the parliament, the relationship between the executive, the legislative, and the judiciary – will be reformulated in a way that will strengthen the parliament and lessen the neo-total authority of the president. So a year from now, if parliament has more of a say, or if there has been a re-jigging in the relationship between the upper house and the lower house, we will see an authentic and autonomous democracy unfolding in Egypt. Now that is the moment of possibility today.

Of course, that scenario is not in the interest of a great many regional and international powerbrokers. The U.S. would prefer that Egypt maintain the system that is in place now, a strong presidency with a military general in power. Omar Suleiman is an obvious successor, as he is the current vice-president and a sort of master spy for the regime. By 2012, I suspect that one of these two scenarios will have played out.

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A Better Constitution

Mamdouh Shoukri
President and Vice-Chancellor, York University.

All my life I have been accused of being an optimist. While I sincerely believe that the predictions I make here will come true, I admit that my views may be tainted by an element of wishful thinking.

The line has now been crossed. Mubarak’s announcement on Feb. 1 signals that Egypt will never again look the way it did before Jan. 25. That possibility is gone, and change is inevitable.

For one thing, there is no way that the type of police harassment that has been going on for the last decade can continue. Even today, there are laws that prevent this kind of activity, but the authorities have so far managed to work around that. I don’t believe the police will be able to get around these important laws any longer.

For another, I believe that the kind of orderly conduct we’ve seen from the army will continue. The army will not shoot at the Egyptian people. It is not the way they have functioned historically, and they are still disciplined enough today not to do anything like that.

One of the more important changes will come from a constitutional point of view. This will include critical changes to electoral processes, in particular to the article that allows a president to rule beyond two terms. Other significant changes will be seen in the re-affirmations of elements that are already in the Egyptian constitution but that were watered down in the Sadat era. These include such rights as the freedom of assembly, expression, and equality before the law, which should be granted to all citizens – irrespective of faith, creed, or what have you.

This is not to say that things will be perfect. Egypt will still have a lot of work to do to reach internationally recognized human rights standards.

Finally, I believe that one year from now Egypt will have a president who has been democratically elected, and that this person will come from outside of the current regime. I further believe that the government of Egypt will be more reflective of the diverse range of views being expressed by the Egyptian people.

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Next Page: Three Possible Scenarios, by Mariz Tadros