Five Implications of the Unrest in Libya

How will the ongoing conflicts shape the future of Libya and what will it mean for the country's neighbours, their allies, and the West?

This Could Spell Disaster for the Rest of Africa.

Bonny Ibhawoh
Professor of African and Global History, Centre for Peace Studies.

More than any of the other uprisings sweeping across the Middle East and North Africa, the one unfolding in Libya holds the gravest consequences for the region.

Libya is in the grasp of a more virulent autocracy – even by Middle Eastern standards. Moammar Gadhafi has made it clear that Libya is not Tunisia or Egypt, and that he will fight to the last man to maintain power. Given his antecedents, this comes as no surprise. Gadhafi would rather bring his country down with him than leave quietly. To make matters worse, no country in the region or the West has the kind of influence over Gadhafi that the U.S. had over Mubarak’s Egypt, or that the Europeans had over Ben Ali’s Tunisia. In dealing with Gadhafi, the international community’s options are much more limited. The unfortunate result is that – as is already becoming apparent – the Libyan uprising will be nothing like the relatively peaceful regime changes we have seen elsewhere.

The situation in Libya is also more precarious because of the damage that it threatens to unleash beyond the country’s shores. Already, EU leaders have begun scrambling to prepare for what the Italian foreign minister has described as “an exodus of biblical proportions.” There are also concerns about the implications for the global economy – particularly regarding the price of oil, which has seen a major spike since the crisis began.

But an even more disturbing concern – which has received very little attention in the media – is the impact that the Libyan crisis could have on the rest of Africa. During his 40 years in power, Gadhafi has thrown his influence and money across the continent to prop up or bring down governments. He has done this more than any other African leader. His fingerprints can be found on armed conflict from Chad to Sudan to the Central African Republic. He has also cultivated a loyal band of mercenaries from sub-Saharan Africa that he now uses to terrorize his own people.

But apparently his influence reaches even farther than this. The African Union’s response to the crisis has been feeble and belated. The union’s Peace and Security Council made a statement condemning the Libyan government’s crackdown on pro-democracy protesters, but this statement was much weaker than the reaction from the EU and even from the Arab League, which took the additional step of suspending Libya.

If Gadhafi remains intransigent and the crisis in Libya spirals into war, the fallout will not only be the upsurge in the price of oil and the masses of people fleeing towards the shores of Europe; it will also be the political instability and conflict that is likely to engulf fragile African states in which Gadhafi has been pulling the strings for so long.

Moammar Ghadafi Timeline: What got us from there to here?

Does the UN Have a Responsibility to Protect the Libyan People?

Daniel Pipes
Director, Middle East Forum.

Presumably, if outside forces did get involved, it would be to stifle the government’s ability to attack the population. It’s unlikely that they would get involved in deciding who should take over and what the future leadership should look like. The latter is not a good idea.

In fact, I’m not someone who expects anything from the UN. Something serious like this should be a NATO project. To me, the UN is fundamentally illegitimate, because it’s made up of authoritarian states, or dictatorships. What right do they have to make decisions of this sort?

But putting that aside, I do think the UN’s intervention would be quite a radical step. I cannot think of other situations where there has been outside intervention in a situation of this sort. I’m not against it, but it is a major step. And it would be pretty easy for the UN to get involved in the situation in Libya, given how close it is to Europe, its small population, its geographic size, and the relative flatness of its land.

But would this set a precedent? Would it mean that international forces all over the world would intervene when governments attack their own populations? This is something that needs to be thought through carefully, because one wants to be consistent. One doesn’t want to just do it where it’s convenient.

A Better Constitution.

Amal Ghazal
Assistant Professor, Middle Eastern History, Dalhousie University.

There is much discussion now about the role of the tribes in a post-Gadhafi Libya. It is very clear that the tribal structure in Libya is not only dominant but also detrimental to the future of Libya. However, it would be a big mistake to analyze Libya’s politics and future through the tribal lens only and to think that Libyan societies cannot build a viable state based on a citizenship that transcends tribal affiliations. Surely, tribal affiliations will always remain important in Libya. But before the Gadhafi era, Libyans experimented with nation-building. It should be noted that Tripolitania was the first independent state in the Arab world, and its independence lasted for three years before it was overrun by the Italians. This highlights the historical roots of state-building in Libya, which precede the country’s 1951 declaration of independence (at which time the country became a federal monarchy comprised of three provinces).

The tribal element, however, has risen to more prominence since Gadhafi’s rule began. Over the last four decades, Gadhafi’s rule has completely neutralized, if not destroyed, state and civil society institutions. The tribal structure has had to replace those absent institutions, and has also had to function as some sort of a civil-society body catering to the needs of Libyans. But this does not mean that the tribal identity is the only one Libyans subscribe to, or that it comes at the expense of a national identity. If all of Libya is liberated from the rule of Gadhafi’s regime, we will see Libyans rebuilding a nation rather than retreating to tribal enclaves. We are already hearing them express such a desire across the airwaves.

The Rise of Democracy in the Arab World

Next Page: The role of western governments, and the need for peace.