What's Next for Libya?

There is a growing sense of dread as western military assets are deployed to the Eastern Mediterranean, and politicians are speaking increasingly of the possibility of some sort of intervention.

Libya is engaged in a civil war. New protests have broken out in Oman,Bahrain and Yemen. The uprising in Tunisia, the pioneer state of the so-called “Arab Spring,” is entering a second phase. As usual, the amateurish Obama administration has no idea what to do about any of this.

Gadhafi’s son, Saif al-Islam, boasted that the regime in Tripoli is not fazed by the prospect of U.S. intervention. “We are ready, we are not afraid,” he said Tuesday. “We live here, we die here.” Maybe that can be arranged.

– Editorial, Washington Times, March 1, 2011

Slowly but surely, the sound of rattling sabres is growing louder. Amid a looming humanitarian crisis and incipient civil war, and denials notwithstanding, there are tell-tale signs of the ground being prepared. In the U.S. and U.K. there is talk of establishing a no-fly zone, of sending in special forces, of arming and training the rebels ...

As western military assets are deployed to the Eastern Mediterranean and politicians are speaking increasingly of the possibility of some sort of intervention, my sense of dread intensifies.

Where is the diplomatic offensive? Yes, the foreign holdings of the Gadhafi family have been frozen, an arms embargo has been applied, and the International Criminal Court is investigating legal proceedings. But this does not constitute anything like the full-court diplomatic press purported to be underway. Why is no one other than Hugo Chavez calling for immediate negotiations, offering mediation and good offices, dispatching special envoys, or demanding that the UN Security Council act to separate the combatants before the onset of full-blown hostilities?

Have we not seen this movie before? The one with the tragic ending?

Will governments ever learn?

It is clear that Moammar Gadhafi has many faults, and in recent interviews he appears completely out of touch and at least partially unhinged. In the face of the eruptions of popular unrest currently washing over the Greater Middle East, it is not at all surprising that Gadhafi’s position is threatened, and perhaps lost.