Stephen Harper Versus Himself

With their lead in the polls and their record of controversies, the Conservatives' biggest challenger is themselves.

So here we are in the midst of another federal election, the fourth since 2004. Prime Minister Stephen Harper is bound and determined to get a majority in the House of Commons. He stands a good chance of pulling it off.

The Conservatives have a very strong lead against a relatively weak opposition. While the polls aren’t entirely in agreement about the exact levels of support, in general they paint a consistent picture of Tory strength. In a poll released March 26 about Canadians’ preferred candidate for prime minister, Ipsos Reid showed Harper leading with a whopping 49 per cent.

Undoubtedly this to some extent reflects the idea of “strong leadership,” which is always being touted by the Conservatives. Significantly, NDP Leader Jack Layton came second at 34 per cent leaving Liberal Michael Ignatieff trailing at 17 per cent. Not a happy place to be for the Leader of the Opposition.

However, a poll released March 25 by EKOS shows a somewhat more even playing field for the parties themselves. Harper’s Tories stand at 35 per cent, the Liberals at 28 per cent, and the NDP at 14 per cent. The Liberals will try to take some comfort here, but in fact EKOS points out that the “Conservatives have made small but significant gains in the last three months. At 35.3 points, they stand well above their 2010 average of 32.2 per cent. Meanwhile, at 28.1 points, the Liberals have remained stagnant.”

It seems clear that in the absence of a strong opposition, the Conservatives’ chief opponent is themselves. They’ve been in power for five years now, and it hasn’t exactly been all peace ’n’ love since they were first elected in 2006. There have been a number of major controversies, not least the two politically motivated prorogations of Canadians’ own Parliament. Canada, the land of peace, order, and good government, may be tiring of the constant Sturm und Drang.

The Conservatives’ difficulty is that their rather heavy-handed style of governance is essentially not Canadian at all. Their tactics are lifted wholesale from their friends in the U.S. Republican party. While clearly effective in advancing a political agenda, it also creates an image of a government that is always angry and looking for someone to lash out against.

The long-term effect of this approach is that eventually more and more members of the electorate will simply find it exhausting. While the “strong leadership” the Tories exult in can generate positive numbers, a party and leader who are as unyielding as cement walls cannot maintain that; eventually they will be seen as remote at best, cruelly indifferent at worst.

It is hardly news that Harper’s main problem is that he comes across as a cold automaton. Obviously that is something of a caricature, but it seems that his apparent lack of humanity stems from his failure to acknowledge ours. Moreover, a truly effective leader makes ordinary citizens feel like they matter. The prime minister, through his attacks on civil rights and process, has only done the opposite.

I would argue that the Nanos Research poll for the Globe and Mail and CTV published March 25, which shows that 41 per cent of Canadians trust the Conservative government less than they did a year ago, is the most ominous poll for the Tories. It shows their lead is fundamentally built upon sand. A government that is neither loved nor particularly trusted has some serious weaknesses just waiting to be exploited.

If the opposition parties campaign well, they will eat away at that lead. But that requires taking control of the electoral discourse – and if the last two years are any indication, they simply don’t have it in them.

We’ll see where things stand a week from now. Anything can happen during an election, and probably will.

Photo courtesy of Reuters.