Apathy Hits a Record High

Politicians are campaigning, but voters aren't responding.

We’re now 22 days into a 42-day election, and while policy platforms have been revealed, candidates’ dirty laundry has been aired, and scandals have erupted, in the polls it’s almost as if the writ was never dropped.

It is remarkable how little the parties have moved in public opinion. According to the current Nanos trending poll, all five major federal parties are more or less stuck in place. At this stage, the Liberal party is the only party polling higher (and, in fact, by only three points) than it was when the election was called on March 26.

On April 11, EKOS released a seat projection based on its current polls, and painted a portrait of the 41st Canadian Parliament that looks an awful lot like the 40th. The only significant change is some New Democrat seats going over to the Liberals.

For The Mark’s full election coverage, click here.

For a quick guide to where the parties stand on the major issues, click here.

It’s hard not to conclude that Canadians simply aren’t engaged at this point, and there is little reason to think they will start paying attention any time between now and May 2. Moreover, there is an ominous demographic trend that Dr. Lawrence LeDuc says will lead to another record-low voter turnout, as young people with no habit of participation grow older and replace more engaged generations.

So, barring dramatic developments, we’re well on our way to getting the same old thing – another Conservative minority government. The Tories have made considerable efforts to paint that outcome as a disaster, which is pretty funny when you think about it. While they say that another minority would lead to a “reckless coalition,” there is another way of looking at it: simple re-election. Should Conservatives find that wholly dreadful? Especially when one looks back over the past five years and remembers that the Tories have consistently stared down a compliant opposition?

One thing about that outcome (should a coalition not come to pass) is that it will herald change down the road. It is extremely unlikely that any of the federal leaders will still be in office a year from now. Stephen Harper’s inability to produce a majority will almost certainly lead to his resignation within a year or so. There’s little evidence that Harper particularly enjoys his job, and his frustration with endless minorities – as well as the tempting opportunity to make real money in the private sector – will likely lead to his going while the getting’s good.

If all goes well for the Conservatives, a new party leader and prime minister would at least temporarily boost the party’s fortunes, possibly leading to a snap election call within the year following. On the other hand, Harper’s major achievement ¬– the iron control of his caucus – would likely end, and the extremist elements in caucus could become embarrassingly audible again, dashing the Conservatives’ hopes for re-election. In a worst-case scenario, a new leadership contest could even lead to the unravelling of the Conservative/Reform coalition that put Harper in power in the first place.

As for the opposition, it is hardly news that Michael Ignatieff is not the most beloved figure in the Liberal party’s history. He would almost certainly be the first leader to go. While he is obviously an intelligent and remarkably accomplished man, he hasn’t connected with the Canadian public in any meaningful way, and is unlikely to do so in the future.

Jack Layton’s term as head of his party is nearing its end, and would be even if he wasn’t facing serious health issues. He’s been the leader of the NDP since January 2003 and, despite herculean efforts, the party’s fortunes haven’t risen significantly during his tenure.

As for Gilles Duceppe, he has been the Bloc Québécois leader since 1997, and Bloquistes could hardly be blamed for looking for new leadership. In the 2008 election, the Bloc received 38 per cent of the popular vote – its lowest percentage ever. Duceppe was also embarrassed in 2007 by a premature jump to Quebec provincial politics, which lasted just one day before he had to withdraw his candidacy for the leadership of the Parti Québécois. If Duceppe still wants to be the next premier of Quebec, the job is almost certainly his. The middling reviews of Pauline Marois’ leadership of the PQ, and Quebecers’ unhappiness with the provincial Liberals, will probably tempt him to abandon Ottawa for la Ville de Québec.

So change is coming. Just not yet.