Been There, Didn’t Do That

The science of climate change has advanced significantly. Action, less so.

At this summer's G-8 conference, Barack Obama made headlines when he declared that developed nations have an "historic responsibility" to take the lead on climate change. "We have made a good start, but I am the first to admit that progress is not going to be easy," he said. Sound familiar? It should. After all, we've been hearing this kind of rhetoric for years – 40 years, to be precise.

Next year will mark the 40th anniversary of one of the first international conferences to discuss global warming. Held in Massachusetts, its conclusions were published in 1970 under the title Man's Impact on the Global Environment: Report of the Study of Critical Environmental Problems. Warnings that long-term climate change caused by increasing CO2 levels would be potentially serious began to circulate in earnest.

Two years later, the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) was founded after a conference in Stockholm. In 1979, what is commonly regarded as the first World Climate Conference was held in Geneva, hosted by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Since then, international and domestic organizations all over the world have met ceaselessly to address increased greenhouse gas emissions caused by human activity and their impact on the environment and our future. So, as we approach the 40th anniversary of the first warnings of systemic climate change, we must ask ourselves what have we learned, how far have we come, and most importantly, what have we achieved?

Thanks to legions of scientists, policy experts, and environmental advocates – some of whom have dedicated a significant part of their lives to advance the climate change issue – we have learned a great deal. We know where we stand. Global warming is one of the largest threats the world is facing and immediate attention is required.

Since 1970, we have come a fair distance in understanding the problem, and to that extent I agree with Obama that we have made a good start. But the critical question remains: Can we make real reductions in emissions? A quick review of results over the past few decades is not encouraging.

In 1970, annual global emissions stood at 24 billion tonnes of C02 equivalents. By 1990, annual emissions had grown to 31 billion tonnes. Five years later, although almost 200 countries had pledged to reduce greenhouse gases, emissions had actually increased to 41 billion tonnes a year. In fact, a total of 560 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases were released into the atmosphere between 1990 (the reference year of the Kyoto Protocol) and 2005.

The sad truth is that only France, Belgium, Sweden, and the UK have managed to reduce emissions for reasons other than an economic downturn. Despite repeated promises and commitments to a variety of reduction targets, real progress remains illusory for all but four nations.

In the meantime, reduction targets continue to escalate and goal posts get shoved further and further ahead. The G-8 nations could not even agree on interim goals this past summer. All the talk is now focused on 2050 – instead of taking action today, most of the world is looking forward to a further 40 years before significant reductions will be achieved.

I must say that I appreciated Obama’s optimism when he said in July that we still have time to overcome cynicism and close the climate change gap. But let us not forget we said the same thing 20 years ago, in Toronto, at the International Conference of the Changing Atmosphere. Or that we used to talk about adopting a “Law of the Atmosphere” and a global Atmosphere Trust Fund. Over the years countless policies and strategies have been written on sustainable development and emission reductions, and action still eludes most of us.

I recently heard it said that this part of history will be known as The Era of Reinvention. I like that sentiment. Over the years we have advanced our society in countless scientific, technological, and economic ways. Now, as we take stock, we need to apply the abundance of accumulated knowledge pertaining to global warming in new and original ways.

More than anything else, it is incumbent on today's leaders to turn understanding into action. As we celebrate the 40th anniversary of the beginning of serious climate change discussions, we must become assertive and truly reinvent ourselves. The year we say thank you for all the research, the studies, the policies, and the advice that have been 40 years in the making must also mark the year we begin to make the next 40 years the era of real reductions.