Quebec Gets Jacked Up

The NDP's surging poll numbers could be post-debate afterglow, or they might upend the conventional wisdom on la belle province.

The NDP's unprecedented support in Quebec has energized Jack Layton and the party faithful, and Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe ought to be concerned, predicts the National Post's Quebec affairs columnist, Graeme Hamilton. “Mr. Duceppe has been caught off guard by a rival who is in some ways an English-Canadian version of himself,” says Hamilton. “Mr. Layton is left-of-centre and holds no realistic chance of winning the next election, so he can promise Quebecers the moon without worrying about having to deliver.” Layton's popularity has leeched support primarily for the Bloc, giving all the other three federal parties a better shot at stealing Quebec seats in tight races.

Still, don't expect the NDP to win much beyond the seat already held by NDP deputy leader Thomas Mulcair, writes L. Ian MacDonald in Montreal's The Gazette: “...While the New Democrats have hopes for two seats in the Outaouais (western Quebec), their vote is spread very thin. And they have no ground game to get it out.” The NDP's long-time irrelevancy in Quebec has held back local organizing, and MacDonald says the party's surge in the polls looks like it's dependent on the leader. “The question arises as to whether this is sustainable or whether these votes are parked with Layton. Then the question is whether the NDP has the means to turn these votes out on election day.”

Jeffrey Simpson of The Globe and Mail must welcome that analysis, as he chastises Layton for pandering to Quebec by saying he'd reopen constitutional talks to have the province enter Confederation on its own terms. “Every responsible Canadian leader must know that, after the traumas of patriation, Meech Lake and the Charlottetown accord, the Constitution is the most divisive issue in Canada,” says Simpson. “To suggest reopening it, without the slightest idea of how to proceed, what to discuss or even a plausible reason why, represents the depth of political irresponsibility.” It amounts to the NDP offering an “asymmetrical federalism," with a different set of principles and policies for Quebec than for the rest of Canada that Simpson decries as "reckless and dangerous at every level."