A Change Would do These Parties Good

Calling all megalomaniac masochists: The leadership of three of the four parties could very easily be up for grabs soon.

Depending on what happens on May 2, it's entirely possible that three of the four parties will have new leaders in little time. David Akin, writing for the Sun chain, forecasts Michael Ignatieff's political career is all but over barring a miracle for the Liberals on election day. While another Conservative government would spell defeat for Canada's “natural governing party” in the near term, it “would give their party the time it so evidently needs to do some soul-searching, revamp the party’s machinery, and make itself a more compelling alternative” to its rivals. Akin points to a merger between the Liberals and NDP as a likely outcome of that introspection, while Iggy could head to the familiar confines of academia at the University of Toronto.

Two of the three likely results of the election would mean another minority government, either helmed by an NDP-Liberal pseudo-coalition thingy or by the Tories. In the case of the latter, Dan Gardner of the Ottawa Citizen makes a case for the Conservatives to turf Stephen Harper over his failure to land a majority, “including twice against the weakest Liberal leaders in modern history.” Minority governments are the norm now across the world, and Harper's inability to make his work without considerable acrimony has forced him into an all-or-nothing wager on winning a majority. “Now, after swearing that anything less would cause earth to shudder and sky to weep, it would be personally calamitous if a Conservative minority government functioned smoothly,” says Gardner. If that's the case, Gardner sees it entirely possible for Harper to ride off into the sunset, either on his own volition or at the urging of his party.

The one leader who has outperformed expectations – obliterated them, really – is the NDP's Jack Layton, leaving Gilles Duceppe as our third candidate for unemployment. The Toronto Star's Chantal Hébert bids him good riddance, suggesting that Duceppe hasn't achieved anything of note at the helm of the Bloc Québécois beyond keeping his job and keeping Parliament in successive minority governments. “If I had collected a dollar for every time a longstanding Bloc supporter voter has opined since the election was called that it is time to move on after 20 years, I would have made a solid profit on the 2011 campaign,” Hébert quips. Left-leaning “soft nationalists” in Quebec – voters who like the idea of more autonomy for Quebec but aren't committed to outright separation – are fleeing from the Bloc to the NDP. Without a logical successor or, heck, even any other MPs that anyone outside of Quebec could name, the Bloc, so long tied to Duceppe, could foreseeably follow its leader into retirement.