Finally, a Legitimate Nigerian Election

Insurgency and poverty remain, but the solution to both is economic development.

For the vast majority of Nigeria’s 73 million voters, cynicism and resignation are the trademarks of Nigerian politics. A brutal civil war, three decades of often ugly military government, and, since the return to civilian rule in 1999, three violent and fraudulent elections have left a dark stain on Nigerian democratic aspirations. The 50th anniversary of Nigeria’s independence, held on Oct. 1, 2010, had little to celebrate: an oil-rich state of 150 million with 70 per cent of the population living in poverty and life expectancy stalled at 47 years.

The celebrations were marked by a massive explosion in the capital city of Abuja, allegedly set by militants from President Goodluck Jonathan’s own oil-producing region. Jonathan, a bookish, modest leader whose political capacities are easily underestimated, came to power on the back of considerable controversy following the death of then-president Umaru Yar'Adua, after only three years in office.

To compensate for their economic and educational marginalization since the return to democracy, politicians from the Muslim north demanded that the rotation principle of “zoning” be respected by insisting that the presidential candidate be selected from their region, since southerners have held the presidency since 1999. A bitter and acrimonious battle ensued, which the north lost. It all adds up to what Nigerian journalist Ike Okonta has described as Nigeria’s “boiling cauldron.”

On this pessimistic canvas, the presidential, National Assembly, and gubernatorial elections held in April can only be read as a major step forward – indeed, something of a milestone. For the first time in Nigerian history, a man from a southern minority group was declared the president on April 18 and inaugurated on May 29. In winning 25 per cent of the votes in 31 of the 36 states in the federation, Goodluck Jonathan easily passed the constitutional requirement for victory in what was uniformly recognized by all reputable monitors as peaceful, credible, and orderly elections.

One mark of this deepening political maturity was that the stranglehold of Jonathan’s ruling party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), was broken. Of the four main opposition parties that fielded candidates for the 469 parliamentary seats, the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) took the bulk of the votes in the southwest of the country, defeating a number of ruling party stalwarts. The Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), led by Muhammadu Buhari, a northern Muslim, won the north in the presidential voting and took almost 15 per cent of the seats in the National Assembly.

As expected, the PDP took the oil-producing Niger Delta, the Igbo southeast, and the ethnically diverse middle belt. But clearly the monopoly powers of the ruling PDP are in retreat. The electoral outcome can only be read as a victory for Nigerians demanding a more legitimate and representative system of government.

Inevitably there were irregularities. Intra-party elections and primaries were marked by breaches of due process and manipulative machine-party politics. The national elections were marred by logistical and procedural problems, and, in some – though by no means all – states, by ballot-box stuffing, underage voters, intimidation, and the purchase of votes.