Blowing H1N1 Out of Proportion
- First Posted: Nov 02 2009 17:31 PM
- Updated: 8 months
There are plenty of viruses that kill, so why are we declaring total war on this one?
I work for the military, an institution that has historically privileged traditional state-based threats such as wars. Recently, the discourse of war – risk and strategy, combat and campaign – has effectively been usurped by health-care professionals and governments. Health threats, whether grave or minor, global or local, have been “securitized,” with their potentially destabilizing effects magnified by the media. In September, The Globe and Mail published a series of alarming articles on the risk of increased sodium intake in Canadian diets, suggesting that “urgent action” was needed to “combat” the problem. And now it is with fascination and horror that I have been following coverage of the H1N1 pandemic, which has increasingly side-lined common sense in favour of fear and sensationalism.
It is extremely tragic that healthy and vulnerable Canadians alike have lost their lives because of H1N1, and I do not want to make light of this unfortunate fact. At the same time, this has been true of regular, run-of-the-mill seasonal influenza for decades. Tuberculosis, malaria, and AIDS have killed millions in the developing world in the last century, and continue to do so, year after year. I sincerely wish more front page ink was devoted to these deaths and the underlying social, economic, and political instability they generate. So forgive me for thinking that until there is new information about an imminent and dangerous mutation in the H1N1 virus, it’s time to adjust perspective, tone down the hysteria, and ask some tough questions.
As a parent, I have been told repeatedly since September that I should not send my daughter to school if she is ill or has a fever. But when was this ever a good idea? We have also been told that we should all wash our hands regularly and thoroughly with hot water and soap. Excuse me? This preventative measure has been recommended since the germ theory of medicine was firmly established.
I refuse to participate in the panic, and for the moment am boycotting hand sanitizer and the socially-sanctioned enrichment of their manufacturers. I’ll continue to wash my hands aggressively and often – which, by the way, I have always done, and have taught my daughter to do as well.
As a citizen, I don’t want to be either encouraged or discouraged from standing in line for a vaccination for hours because my views correspond with those of my favourite celebrity. And please don’t infantilize my judgment by telling me that H1N1 is “new … different, and it spreads quickly” as the full-page advertisements published this past weekend in newspapers by the Ontario government did. Tell me the facts instead and allow me to weigh the medical risks involved versus the benefits conferred.
As an academic, it is with the gentlest irony that I must remind the public health planners of the “campaign” against H1N1 of a few things about military engagements. In military campaigns throughout history, strategic and operational plans usually haven't survived first contact with the "enemy." Second and third-order effects of battle are often more costly and unpredictable than the original casus belli. The production processes required for the smooth conduct of war have to be carefully planned, with as little interruption in the chain of supply and demand as possible (attention: GlaxoSmithKine!). And finally, the public, especially in a democracy, will punish you for an increasing death count, which can and will be interpreted as mission failure.





Comments
Re:Marks
“ It was difficult reading your logic process. Are you expressing your personal beliefs that the mdia is creating an air of panic surrounding H1N1 or are you attempting to display your knowledge surrounding military items to make your argument more convincing? Putting that confusion aside for the moment, H1N1 is a very serious threat for several reasons. First the original discovery of it stated clearly it was a mutation never seen before. This also means, beside it being a new mutation, humanity has no history of how this virus will evole and affect us. But lets add to that a bit more. In India reseachers have already documented 31 mutations and one variant that deposits proteins on the the blood-oxygen membrane in your lungs and it prevents that membrane from transferring oxygen to your blood. So it has mutated well beyond it's orginal assembly. It also has been documented that the incubation period for H1N1 can be as short as three to six hours making it six times more aggressive than the common based on 4.5 hour average for H1N1 and using the conservative range for the common cold of 24 hours versus the longer 48 hour incubation period. The other concern that is a large statistical variation is vaccine production yields from chicken eggs for the H1N1 is around 70 percent versus over 90 percent for your typical vaccine creating further vaccine availability problems in the face of a rapidly mutating virus. These are all documented facts and not any type of conjecture. When you take into consideration the characteristics of H1N1 so far to date since it's discovery in 2009 coming out of Mexico around March break and overlay that onto the very different social structure existing today compared to the one that existed in 1918 during the Spanish Flu, a dreaded killer, there should be reason for great concern. The social structure differences in that 90 year period from 1918 inlcudes the development of the airline industry flying domestically and abroad, interstate highways and railroad systems as well as the consolidation of our food distribution points from local grocery stores into major large center chain stores because we all have to eat even during a pandemic. I wanted to bring these facts to your attention in light of thel numbers coming out of the Ukraine with over 250,000 suddenly infected quickly, nearly 70 deaths so far and around 15,000 now in hospitals since their outbreak, many of them in ICU and reports of many being on ventilators to assist breathing. I felt it was moral responsibility to challenge your views so that someone reading them did not get a false sense of security based upon your views versus facts.
Edward Jan Klinard
“ Edward, I think you definitely did not read her "logic process" correctly. You missed her point altogether. The virus may develop quickly, some variants may deposit proteins on the "blood-oxygen membrane" in some people. It has a short incubation period. So what? The point is that it's not killing people in huge numbers. We can call it an epidemic if we like, but so far it isn't producing more fatalities than other flu viruses. We've put all hands on deck for this, and it is not a SARS type virus with its very high fatality rate. Will this happen every time an H1N1 comes along? If so,and if each one proves as relatively inoffensive as this virus what will hitting the panic button too many times do for our ability to address a serious outbreak. Pretty straightforward really. And make sure you wash your hands before pushing the panic button.
Greg Narbey
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