The debate over the future of Canada’s engagement in Afghanistan beyond 2011 must begin with the recognition of two fundamental points. First, despite the deteriorating security environment and rising political tensions, much has been accomplished over the past eight years. Canadian and international assistance has brought about improvements in almost every major development indicator, facilitated the return of millions of refugees and spurred a moribund economy. Second, rebuilding any failed state, particularly one as troubled as Afghanistan is a time and cost intensive process. Expectations must be recalibrated to reflect this inescapable reality. Afghanistan will not be a Switzerland of the Hindu Kush in this lifetime, and it may take decades for it to reach the level of a Nepal or Bangladesh. Even with these caveats, one cannot deny that the situation in Afghanistan today is grave and that the coming years may represent a turning point for the country. Accordingly, a vibrant debate on the future of Canada’s engagement in the country is needed and the following four issues should inform it:

1. A clear strategy and vision must be in place to guide Afghanistan’s transition over the coming decade. The last major donor conference on Afghanistan was held in early 2006 in London, resulting in the signing of the Afghan Compact, an ambitious vision for Afghanistan’s reconstruction that seemingly failed to endow the international engagement with the clarity and purpose that was lacking. In this light, a new conference should be convened with the purpose of outlining firm and realistic benchmarks and goals for the years ahead and providing a foundation for a renewed partnership between the Afghan state and international community.
2. Sustainable peace and stability will never be achieved in Afghanistan without a regional framework for cooperation. The time may be ripe for the formation of such a framework, with Pakistan gripped in its own struggle with Taliban militants and relations between Tehran and Washington showing signs of thawing. Such a framework could be overseen by the UN and include not only Afghanistan’s immediate neighbours but regional powers like India, Russia, and Saudi Arabia as well as the United States. Such an arrangement would not only address regional security threats, but break down barriers to trade. It could help transform Afghanistan’s “bad neighbourhood” from a driver of conflict to a key ingredient of stability and prosperity.
3. The Afghan state must have the tools to provide for its own security. The present size of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) is not sufficient for this task. The McChrystal report was right to suggest that force targets for the ANSF should be doubled from the current 200,000 to 400,000 within the coming years. This will require a massive increase in donor resources and a long-term commitment to subsidize the force, as the Afghan government will not have the capacity to sustain it for decades. However, when you consider that according to some estimates the cost of deploying one NATO soldier is equivalent to training five Afghan troops, such an approach is simply more cost effective.
4. There is no military solution to the Afghan conflict. A domestic process of reconciliation is needed that will reach out both to receptive elements of the Taliban movement as well as disgruntled factional actors. This will involve not only talks with militant groups but dialogue with traditional leaders and authorities at the local level, actors who have oft felt alienated from political happenings in Kabul. While a number of initiatives have been launched to pursue this broad goal of reconciliation, a coherent Afghan-owned policy, with international backing is still lacking.

As Canada’s engagement is part of a multilateral enterprise, the nature of its continued involvement must entail a frank assessment of the willingness of others to stay the course. Moreover, it is important to remind Canadians that even in the absence of an active military role, Canada can play a crucial part in the future of Afghanistan, whether it is nurturing the nascent public administration, supporting development projects, or advancing security sector reform. Under the right conditions, as alluded to in this statement, success can be achieved in Afghanistan. However, it will take continued commitment and resolve as the time for half-measures and partial commitments has passed.