“ Fuller makes the key remark right at the end, with one slight difference from my earlier thinking. The breakup of Afghanistan, with the tribal areas joining the neighbouring republics with very similar ethnic nature, appears to make sense. Those republics operate fairly well with an ethnic mix - they manage that mix, treating their minorities well. It would mean a larger Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, ... The point he makes is that it would require also one new republic - Pashtunistan. It would also fracture one existing republic - Pakistan. The fracture of Pakistan along ethnic lines - pashtun and punjabi - while not something that could necessarily be done without considerable strife, may in fact be the inevitable end game. An end game caused by the failed American intervention in Afghanistan. Can any modified American strategy put in place now make up for the first 7 years of failure? Much less probable than an orderly exit starting now and ending within a year.