Be It Resolved That This Debate Matters

What if Ontario held a debate, and no one showed up?

The Ontario election's leaders debate is set for tonight, meaning pundits across the province are desperately hoping for a “knockout punch” to make the event at least somewhat interesting. L. Ian MacDonald, writing for the Sun chain this time, figures this is PC Leader Tim Hudak's make-or-break moment, as many voters only start paying attention to the election once the debate begins, and he hasn't exactly been too visible as opposition leader. But all that can change should he land one of those fabled blows, perhaps by “[reminding Liberal Leader Dalton] McGuinty that on his watch Ontario became a have-not province ... that Ontario has run up $52 billion in new debt in the last three years.” Those are two very salient points that Hudak has almost entirely avoided since campaigning began, as his party has preferred to focus on minor culture wars over immigrant tax credits and sex offenders instead of more pressing economic concerns. If he doesn't clue in to that tonight, then he can likely expect his poll numbers to continue their steady descent to opposition status.

Over in the Toronto Star, Martin Regg Cohn sees the debate as McGuinty's time to borrow a page from the Stephen Harper playbook by posing as the voice of experience while letting the two rookie leaders come across as amateurs. “Stay tuned for a lecture from McGuinty about the 'strong, steady, experienced hand on the tiller,'” says Cohn. It's a narrative upon which Harper, “another unloved incumbent,” rode to electoral glory in his fourth election campaign, and with an economic forecast for Ontario that's far from rosy, we can expect much the same sort of “don't change horses midstream” rhetoric from the Liberal leader as well. Let's just hope McGuinty steers clear of sweater vests.

Of course, all this brow-furrowing over the debate could all be for naught should voters choose to skip the leaders' little chit-chat, writes Andrew Cohen in the Ottawa Citizen. Voter turnout fell to a record low – 52 per cent – in the last Ontario election, and there are scant few signs that more voters are going to show up this time around. “It may be that while the province addresses issues close to people's daily lives - schools, hospitals, roads, energy - voters may not have the connection of a generation ago,” Cohen offers. “It may also be that Premier Dalton McGuinty is bland.” Ditto for Hudak and Horwath. We'll add that in the province's two biggest cities, Toronto and Ottawa, residents follow municipal and federal politics, respectively, much more closely, leaving provincial politics as an afterthought. Whether the leaders are at all able to reverse that trend rests heavily on their performance tonight. We have our doubts, but we'll be watching regardless.