NDP Support Down, Bloc Support Up in Quebec

Poll of the Day: Quebec's dissatisfaction with the ruling Conservatives could explain the bump in support for the Bloc.

A new Leger Marketing poll has the Bloc Québécois picking up six percentage points in support at the expense of the NDP, leading some observers to wonder if it means the Conservative legislative agenda is hardening resolve against federalist parties. While the NDP is still the most popular party in Quebec (with 37-per-cent support across the province), the Bloc has rebounded from its historic low of just 21 per cent support to 27 per cent. The Tories and Liberals are tied at 15 per cent support. The poll also found that the vast majority of Quebec residents are opposed to the Tories' decision to scrap the gun registry (69 per cent) and their appointment of a unilingual auditor general (71 per cent). Likewise, 65 per cent of respondents said they felt that the federal government ought to cover the costs incurred by the provinces by implementing the omnibus crime bill.

All told, Don Macpherson of The Montreal Gazette suggests that these trends, in addition to the continued decline in NDP support, could mean that the "NDP has not lived up to expectations that it would effectively replace the Bloc in defending the interests of French-speaking Quebecers," compounded by "the generally lacklustre performance of the NDP in an unfamiliar spotlight as the official opposition while distracted by its own leadership campaign." Of course, as Macpherson notes, this is just one poll, but should the NDP pick a leader whose French is weak, it could hasten a return of support to the Bloc. Or it might not. It's a lot of speculation, frankly, but it does speak to the dilemma the NDP faces in having to placate both the soft sovereigntist leanings of many of its Quebec constituents and its traditional base of anglo voters in Ontario and B.C.