Searching for Meaning in Iowa

In which we review the struggles of America's conservative press to find some good news out of the Iowa caucus results.

The Iowa caucuses for the Republican presidential nomination have come and gone, with Mitt Romney just barely topping Rick Santorum in the field's first electoral test. W. James Antle III (file that under "Names, Guaranteed to be a Republican" ...) writes in The American Spectator that the results – Santorum "lost" by just eight votes – position the former Pennsylvania senator as the latest "not Romney," after failed bids by Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, and Rick Perry. "[Santorum] gave a solid post-caucus speech showing that he understands Romney's vulnerabilities and has given some thought to tailoring his conservative message for a broader electorate," writes Antle. "He won two statewide races in Pennsylvania, which Republicans have coveted since 1988." Plus, with Bachmann bowing out of the race, and Perry likely to do the same after the South Carolina primary, Santorum's the lone tried-and-true social conservative, leaving him as the most likely candidate to end up as the Tea Party champion. But as Antle notes, Santorum "doesn't have much money," and with a gruelling cross-country primary schedule set up for the next two months, whether he'll be able to campaign as effectively as Romney in states as far afield as New Hampshire, Nevada, Virginia, and Florida is far from clear.

Philip Klein of The Washington Examiner figures the real winner in Iowa is President Barack Obama, because Romney wasn't able to gain any ground on his 2008 showing and Santorum's gains mask the lack of enthusiasm for any of the other candidates. "If Romney wins the nomination, the Iowa results don't bode well when it comes to assessing the Republican Party's chances of beating President Obama in November," notes Klein. "Though turnout was up from the 2008 caucuses, it was only up by a few thousand votes, even as GOP voter registration grew, more candidates were contesting the state and more Democrats and independents voted on the Republican side because there was no competitive Democratic race this time." The Los Angeles Times' Mark Z. Barabak pinpoints it even better: "Elections are often as much about subtraction as addition, and what didn't happen in the caucuses was more important than what did: No giant-slayer emerged as a potent alternative to the former Massachusetts governor whom many voters can't seem to love." Santorum's popularity among social conservatives might rise, but his fringe positions on abortion, gay rights, and more will almost surely prevent him from wooing independents and swing voters.

Over at The Weekly Standard, Jay Cost foresees the wheels coming off Santorum's campaign once those views get the full vetting that sunk Cain and Gingrich. "Santorum’s win was due in large part to being the only 'unvetted' conservative in the race," says Cost. "He has baggage of his own, little funding, almost no institutional support, and (unlike [2008 Iowa winner Mike] Huckabee) cannot count on the South embracing him as a native son." As for Romney, his numbers in Iowa this year are almost identical to how he polled there in 2008, while Huckabee's supporters were split among Bachmann, Perry, and Santorum. "Thus, Iowa is a metaphor for the whole 2012 Republican nomination campaign," says Cost. "It is not as though Mitt Romney has increased the breadth or depth of his support relative to 2012. At least not yet. Instead, his advantage is due primarily to the weakness of his opposition." As such, Cost figures that Romney "is in the catbird seat," and will likely plow through January's primaries to the nomination. Which, basically, is what we and the bulk of observers have been saying for the last year, proving that yes, even columnists and pundits can be right (with, umm, some notable exceptions) at least some of the time. (Of course, us writing this will probably lead to Ron Paul pulling a John McCain and ending up as a "maverick" candidate beholden to nobody.) At least it's been a hugely entertaining ride getting here.