What Will Topple The Regime In Iran?

The Islamic Republic faces hostility both internally and internationally, yet it maintains its hold on power.

On the 31st anniversary of the Iranian Revolution, the Islamic Republic is in turmoil. Millions of disgruntled people, fed up with three decades of brutal religious rule have revolted against the regime; rival factions within the ruling bloc have locked horns; the West has lined up against it, with more serious sanctions on the agenda; and a crippling economic crisis is looming, with rising poverty, 30 per cent inflation, and widespread unemployment, particularly among the youth who constitute the majority of the population.

Yet, despite this hostile internal and international environment, the regime still hangs on. Even after the illegitimate and disgraceful 2009 presidential elections, it has maintained its hold on power.

Several factors explain why. First and foremost, it controls an incredible repressive machine, consisting of the zealot Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the militia, a medieval judiciary, religious courts, and its infamous jail system. It has also millions of people on the payroll of the religious bonyads (foundations) who can be mobilized for rallies. Political opposition is disorganized and divided inside and outside Iran.

Traditional opposition forces, mostly remnants of the 1979 revolutionary period, be they royalists, religious and secular liberals, or socialists, are hampered by factionalism and in-fighting. They have proven incapable of taking advantage of the regime’s turmoil to build coalitions and offer a specific alternative agenda.

It is mainly the younger generation inside Iran that is posing the most formidable challenge to the authorities, but they lack organization and a unified leadership. The Green Movement, led by Mir-Hossein Mussavi and Mehdi Karoubi, is just one part (though admittedly a very significant one) of the larger rainbow movement of the young civil society of Iran.

At the international level, the regime counts on the support of Russia and China, which have benefited enormously from their relationship with Iran. Yet, the international pressure is intensifying. The U.S. has increased its presence in the Persian Gulf and is equipping Arab Sheikdoms of the area with advanced Patriot missile batteries. Israel, meanwhile, has increased its propaganda and has threatened to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Amidst all this, the Islamic regime is pushing forward with its nuclear program. At a government rally in Tehran to mark the anniversary of the revolution, where the regime had painstakingly gathered their supporters from surrounding areas while blocking the way of the opposing crowds, Ahmadinejad proudly announced that “Iran is now a nuclear state.” This appears contrary to the assumption that, in the face of internal and international threats, any regime would try to avoid further provoking its opponents.

However, with the growing erosion of its legitimacy, at a time when people loudly shout “death to the dictator” in the streets, the regime has come to realize that the continuation of the present situation will only further weaken it to the point that even sheer force would not contain the unrest. That is why a serious external threat, presumably the Israelis supported by the U.S., would be a god-given gift to the government. Under the threat of military invasion, any opposition voice would be deemed treasonous and quickly silenced.

The regime is also counting on the constraints the U.S. face in confronting Iran. Any military operation – be it in the form of a so-called surgical strike on nuclear sites or a more massive bombardment – will have retaliatory repercussions and could open a third theatre of war. This would likely be a much larger and longer war than those fought in Afghanistan and Iraq. Israel, despite the nonstop rhetoric of the present right-wing coalition government, is in no position to attack Iran by itself, unless it can drag the U.S. into the war.

The impact sanctions can have is also limited if they do not include an embargo on oil exports. But if they do, they will only hurt the people, as was the case in Iraq under Saddam Hussein, and the West would be shooting itself in the foot, because it would send global oil prices through the ceiling.

Despite all of the efforts of the regime to suppress the opposition and mobilize rent-a-crowds of hundreds of thousands at its rallies, its support from a few misguided intellectuals in the West who praise Iran for its anti-imperialism, and the international provocations, the Islamic Republic is no longer what it was before the June elections. The Iranian people, led by women, youth, intellectuals, workers, and employees have risen against it. They are the only force capable of putting an end to this tyrannical religious rule. And they need all the international support they can get.