Four Wars on the Verge of Erupting

A growing separatist movement in the South could push the entire country into chaos.

On Christmas Day, 2009, a young Nigerian trained by al-Qaeda in Yemen failed in his attempt to blow up Northwest Airlines flight 253. Since then, western governments have viewed Yemen primarily through the prism of security, and international aid to Yemen has been geared to supporting the current regime against radical groups.

Yemen indeed faces significant challenges and its current government lacks the capacity to cope. Among these complex problems are: armed conflict in the North, declining oil revenues, organized crime, and both economic and water crises.

The most urgent and pressing challenge, however, is not the presence of al-Qaeda; it is a growing separatist movement in the South. The fragility and instability of Yemeni public institutions may create conditions that allow extremists organizations like al-Qaeda to thrive in the country. Nonetheless, the Southern Movement, as it is called, threatens the very survival of the Yemeni regime and may derail the fragile unity that has lasted, with occasional violent interruptions, for nearly 20 years.

The current round of confrontation started three years ago, in the southern port city of Aden, when military retirees from the former southern army held demonstrations demanding higher pension payments. Unwisely, the government responded to the officers’ protests with violence and at least 17 people were killed. This incident sparked the separatist movement that has now spread throughout the South of Yemen.

The Southern Movement is diverse. The majority of its leaders reject violence and refuse to form an alliance with al-Qaeda. Nonetheless, violence appears to be on the rise. Five Yemeni soldiers were killed in an ambush in the southern province of Shabwa in July 2010, and there have been attacks on government offices in the same area and in Abyan province in the past few weeks.

There is a long history to southern discontent, going back to the creation of modern Yemen, in 1990, with the unification of the conservative northern Yemen Arab Republic and the Marxist oriented southern Peoples’ Democratic Republic of Yemen.

In many respects, the roots of the current unrest lie in power arrangements that followed unification and the end of a brief southern secession attempt during the civil war in 1994. Those power arrangements privilege northern elite control over key resources in southern provinces – with the military controlling businesses and land.

Unification also prompted a revival of tribal rule in southern Yemen. While less than 30 per cent of the Yemeni population claims any tribal identity, unification strengthened the tribal system. The Yemeni president set up a Ministry in Charge of Tribal Issues to institutionalize the role and influence of tribal leaders. The increasing power of these unelected leaders has led to conservative political and social policies that alienate many southerners.

An additional source of discontent resulting from unification was for the decline of women’s rights. The socialist government in the South promoted the political, social, and economic rights of women, backed by legislation. The 1970 constitution gave women rights equal to men. After unification, women in the South lost these rights

Despite this dark picture, it is not too late for the Yemeni regime to prevent the further radicalization of the southern separatist movement. To succeed, however, the government must address the economic demands of the southern population, and invest the country’s oil revenues equally among the country’s provinces and regions. This is especially important when one considers that Yemen’s oil-producing zones lie within the former boundaries of South Yemen. In addition, the government must make genuine efforts to promote decentralization, southerners’ access to political institutions, and an elected local government with broad political powers.

In my own visits to Yemen over the years I have heard many complaints from civil society leaders, academics, and local officials in the southern city of Aden that the international community ignores the South and focuses its efforts exclusively on Yemen’s capital, Sana’a.

Any efforts to prevent the collapse of Yemen’s current political system – which would inevitably feed into regional armed conflicts – must recognize the several causes of the fragility of the country, of which the North-South divide is central. Initiatives to deal with southern discontent in a fair, equitable, and democratic manner lie at the heart of the way forward, as this is the only route to peace and stability.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed here reflect those of the writer alone, and not necessarily those of the International Development Research Centre.