Four Wars on the Verge of Erupting

The area is home to both massive oil reserves and simmering conflict.

In 2005, a select group of strategic experts (including former directors of the CIA and former marine commanders) met in a downtown Washington, D.C. hotel to discuss the possible devastating consequences of a so-called “oil shockwave” – a situation in which vital arterial sources of the world’s oil supply are rendered inaccessible because of war or regional conflict. Topping the list of the most likely global hotspots was Nigeria’s volatile Niger Delta.

In April of this year, Nigeria gained notoriety as a petroleum super-producer with over one million barrels shipped to the United States per day. The country may soon outpace Saudi Arabia in production. With such high stakes, Nigeria has garnered significant international attention, as much for the conflict bubbling below its surface as for the oil.

Recent headlines captured the drawn-out saga of Nigeria’s bizarre presidential transition, the horrific images of the machete-wielding killers in Jos (whose blades and bullets found women and children to be the easiest targets), the police takedown of the Islamist group Boko Haram and the alleged extra-judicial killing of its leader Mohammed Yusuf, and the attempted bombing of a Northwest airliner by a Yemeni-trained Nigerian national.

Yet it’s what is behind these headlines that make Nigeria such a disturbing study for future conflict. With much of its population on the “fringes,” Nigeria’s disenfranchised masses remain extraordinarily vulnerable to conflict opportunists.

Home to 150 million of Africa’s 800 million citizens, Nigeria is a significant strategic hinge point for continental stability. Should Nigeria falter, it would likely take much of Sub-Saharan Africa with it.

With oil and gas exports amounting to some 97 per cent of its foreign earnings, Nigeria has all but forsaken its other industries. This follow-the-money attitude has led to a meteoric rise in Nigeria’s year-over-year economic growth rate, which the World Bank now suggests is set for double-digit performance in 2010. However, not all Nigerians are celebrating.

While the conflict in the Niger Delta worries multinational corporations and foreign governments because of the costly illegal tapping of oil supplies and the kidnapping of foreign nationals, such conflict is at least partially controllable with improved negotiation and greater corporate social responsibility. Potentially emerging conflict scenarios may be far more difficult to manage.

For the 150 million Nigerians who do not own oil companies and whose reality is currently underscored by a Human Development Index that ranks Nigeria 158th out of 182 countries (and falling), the disparity between haves and have-nots is beginning to strain the already hair-trigger political and social relationships amongst Nigeria’s 250 ethnic groups.

A clash between Nigerian government forces and a largely disenfranchised population in Nigeria’s north is one distinct possibility. Nigeria’s northern states are home to some 75 million Muslims, making Nigeria the 4th largest member of the 57-country Organization of the Islamic Conference. In contrast to Nigeria’s oil-rich south, the north has virtually no western commercial or diplomatic presence. Recent uprisings by Sufi-Brotherhoods, Izala (anti-innovationists), and Shiite movements, as well as new Iranian radio broadcasts targeting unemployed youth are worrisome. In fact, recent analysis has revealed that 25 per cent of foreign jihadists in Iraq now originate from North Africa. Disturbingly, Osama bin Laden specifically mentions Nigeria as being “ripe for revolution.”

However, the problem in the north has little to do with religion. Research carried out by this author in Nigeria confirmed that the country’s woes arise from opportunists who purposely use religion to activate fear and hostility within economically sidelined populations. Given Nigeria’s numbers, growing disparity between rich and poor, and ever-increasing unemployment, the north remains a powder keg for discontent.

The catalyst for increased hostilities may come soon, as Nigeria is set to route a mammoth 4,000 km-long Tran-Saharan natural gas pipeline through its northern regions to feed hungry EU consumers. Security will be paramount, which is perhaps why the United States has pushed so hard to base its new Africa Command inside Nigeria – a proposal Nigeria has bluntly refused. Alternatively, Nigeria is welcoming China with open arms, a nation which does not judge the domestic affairs of others. This has emboldened Nigeria – recently underscored by comments made by the country’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Ojo Maduekwe in Washington that Nigerians do not want “kindergarten lessons on democracy.” One wonders if he speaks for all Nigerians.