Paths to Peace

The Asian nation can play an important role in bringing peace to the Middle East

Let’s imagine a scenario for the latest round of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets with Mahmoud Abbas for an afternoon negotiating session. They agree that Israel and the new Palestinian state will divide up roughly along the old Green Line. Israel gets to keep a couple of settlements east of the Green Line in return for a land corridor between Gaza and the West Bank. Millions of Palestinian refugees and their descendants living in neighbouring Arab states are invited to settle in the new Palestine – not Israel; the Palestinians will get one state, not two.

By the mid-afternoon tea-time, they agree that the Arab Quarter of East Jerusalem will become the tiny demilitarized Palestinian nation’s capital. Palestinians operate the Dome of the Rock. Israeli soldiers secure the Western Wall.

Handshakes all around. The historic peace deal is signed on live television. The moment gets two million hits in a single hour on YouTube.

Middle East watchers and pundits are gobsmacked at the sheer speed of the talks. How could these leaders hash out an agreement in mere hours after decades of wrangling and bloodshed?

That morning, an utterly forgettable American envoy named Joe walked into the room and sheepishly addressed the Israeli and Palestinian leaders. He turned out to be an accountant. Querulous introductions followed. Next, he outlined some harsh truths.

“Look, the U.S. just can’t afford to keep pouring money down the drain and neither can our European pals,” Joe said with a shrug. “We’re broke. And our Chinese creditors, to whom we owe trillions, are threatening to call in our loans. And they’ve given us certain … conditions on our discretionary spending.”

To Abbas’s consternation, Joe’s next comments were directed mostly at his side of the table. Western countries (and their Asian financiers) were tired of spending billions of dollars maintaining the descendants of Palestinian refugees who wouldn’t be refugees if Arab states would simply give them citizenship rights. They would no longer underwrite Palestinian media that offered a stream of daily incitement. Same goes for schools where Palestinian children were taught to become suicide bombers. “We can no longer justify the expense.”

Abbas objects, but Joe holds firm, outlining the funders’ biggest gripe. “Let me give you a small example. You know the Al-Awda Hospital in Gaza City you were paying for, even though Fatah has no political representation in Gaza since the coup? All you did there was relieve Hamas of the need to spend its own cash on health care instead of salaries for its gunmen and weapons. You’ve subsidized terror with our cash. It’s just not a good return on our investment."

Abbas explains that the Palestinian authority will be forced to rely on sponsors like Syria and Iran to make ends meet, with unhappy consequences for all. “That cash will come with certain strings attached that we won’t like, but if we have to take it …” Abbas began, alluding to the flood of guns and heavy weapons that have already come into the Hamas terror statelet.

“That’s not going to happen,” Joe interrupted. “Again, it’s not us. It’s our creditors. They want to see an end to this.” A financial firewall had gone up the night before, augmenting current sanctions against the regimes in Damascus and Tehran.

“What are we supposed to live on?” Abbas complains. “You want us to eat grass?”

Joe explains that the world understands quite well that a Palestinian state will still require infusions of welfare, likely in perpetuity. “We are confident that Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan, with substantial numbers of Palestinian, er, residents, will be pleased to underwrite the maintenance of a Palestinian state. They haven’t returned our calls yet. But I’m sure they will.”

Abbas is white-faced, mindful of precisely how much aid the Arab states have provided for Palestinians over the years.

“There is one alternative,” Joe suggests. “Our own generous creditors in Beijing have offered to extend a helping hand to provide substantial financial incentives towards a new Palestinian state. They see this as a bargain compared with the current state of affairs. You negotiate a deal today and you get the money. Otherwise … well, as I say, I’m sure your Arab neighbours will be willing to fund your refugee camps for six more decades at least.”

“And how substantial are these incentives?” Abbas queries.

“Very substantial,” Joe answers.

And that’s how a final peace deal between the Israelis and the Palestinians could come about in record time on some extraordinary afternoon.